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Health & Fitness

Atlantic Highlands Real Estate: 3rd Quarter Update

If you’ve been following my monthly posts you know that there are four (4) key, objective indicators for real estate: number of sales (demand), number of listings (supply), price and absorption rate.

Let’s start with the number of sales. At the end of the 3rd quarter, the sales of single-family homes in Atlantic Highlands decreased 6% compared to last year. The number of sales is an indicator of demand: more sales tend to drive prices higher, whereas fewer sales typically predict lower future sales prices.

Next is the number of listings. For the past 3 months, Atlantic Highlands has had a high inventory (i.e., supply) of homes on the market. As of the end of September there were 9% more listings than a year ago. More listings normally result in decreased prices, since would-be buyers have more houses to choose from, while fewer listings tend to push prices down.

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The 3rd key indicator is price. To me, the median is the best way to look at sales prices, but some REALTORS® use the average sales price instead. As of the end of September, the median single-family home price in Atlantic Highlands was 34% higher than it was a year ago, and the average price was up 30%. These are much higher increases than in any of the surrounding towns (e.g., the median price in Middletown is up 4%, Highlands is unchanged). Remember that the mathematical average is simply the total of all the selling prices divided by the number of homes that were sold, while the median is the price at which 50% of the homes sold for more money and 50% sold for less.

Finally, the 4th indicator is the real estate absorption rate. This is a calculation of how long it would take to sell all the houses that are currently listed for sale, assuming that homes continue to sell at the same rate as they have during the past 12 months. The absorption rate is important because it takes into account both demand (#1 above) and supply (#2 above). If you remember my previous posts you know that REALTORS® consider an absorption rate of between 5 and 7 months to be a “normal market”, whereas more than 7 months is a “buyer’s market” and less than 5 months is a “seller’s market”. A year ago the Atlantic Highlands absorption rate was 9.0 months (a “buyer’s market”) and now it’s 7.8 months (still technically a “buyer’s market”).

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Here are Atlantic Highlands’ September 30th year-to-date single-family home numbers in a table:

 

Sales: 36 in 2012, 34 in 2013 (-6%)

Listings: 32 in 2012, 35 at the end of September 2013 (+9%)

Median Sales Price: $329,500 in 2012, $440,050 in 2013 (+34%)

Average Sales Price: $421,422 in 2012, $549,639 in 2013 (+30%)

Absorption Rate: 9.0 months in 2012, 7.8 months now (stronger Demand vs. Supply)

 

The bottom line is that the objective indicators for Atlantic Highlands real estate are mixed.

If you’re thinking of buying a house in Atlantic Highlands and find something you like, remember my advice: DON’T CALL THE LISTING AGENT (even if it’s me)! The Listing Agent works for the Seller, and has a fiduciary responsibility to negotiate the highest price. Instead, get a REALTOR® who will work only for you (i.e., a Buyer’s Agent) and who will negotiate the lowest price.

Real estate is fairly quiet from November until February, with fewer homes on the market and fewer buyers actively looking. However, serious buyers and sellers tend to be more motivated during this time of the year, so don’t assume that the market’s not worth while at this time.  Call or text me if you’re thinking of buying or selling. Remember, a sale takes place when an informed seller and an informed buyer agree on a price. I’ll keep giving you monthly updates on Atlantic Highlands real estate.

Note: I wrote this article; these are my personal views and do not necessarily reflect the views of Diane Turton, Realtors.

Len

 

Leonard “Len” Dunikoski, GRI

REALTOR® Associate

Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office

8 West River Road

Rumson, NJ 07760

(732) 239-0739  (cell)    (732) 530-6686 (office)

ldunikoski@dianeturton.com

http://www.rumsonfairhavenhome.com

 

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