History Favors Obama in New Jersey

State has given its electoral votes to a Democrat in the last five elections.

If history is any indication, Barack Obama should have no problem winning New Jersey's 14 electoral votes in his quest for re-election on Tuesday. 

In the past four presidential elections, the Republican candidate has never been within 240,000 votes, and only once did a candidate get within 500,000 of his Democratic opponent.  

A look at statistics kept by the state shows that in the last four elections, incumbent president George W. Bush was the closest at picking up the NJ's nod, still losing to John Kerry by more than 240,000 votes.

The biggest winner among the Democratic candidates in that span was incumbent Barack Obama, who won the state by more than 600,000 votes in 2008.

The closest vote in 20 years came in 1992, when Bill Clinton won his first of two terms as president, defeating George H. Bush by only 79,341 votes.

The numbers show one of the reasons why the national media hasn't used the term "swing state" to describe the race in the Garden State for quite some time. It also shows that the winner hasn't so much coincided with the national victor, so much as who was on the Democratic ticket in the past 20 years.

The last time a Republican won the state was in 1988, when the elder Bush defeated Michael Dukakis by more than 400,000 votes in one of the more lopsided national races in history. Bush won 426 electoral votes to Dukakis' 111.

That was the last of a long line of Republican wins in New Jersey. Before 1992, the last time a Democrat won the state's electoral votes was 1964 when it went for Lyndon B. Johnson.

Once that string of six straight elections was broken, though, the state hasn't voted for a Republican since. The following breakdown of the past 20 years of New Jersey presidential voting gives a look at how residents have cast their ballots.

NJ Presidential Voting History

Year Democratic Votes Republican Votes Difference NJ Winner Same as National Winner? 2008 2,215,422 1,613,207 602,215 Yes 2004 1,911,430 1,670,003 241,427 No 2000 1,788,850 1,284,173 504,677 No 1996 1,652,329 1,103,078 549,251 Yes 1992 1,436,206 1,356,865 79,341 Yes

When it comes to the statistics on voter turnout in New Jersey, one might expect the number 70 to come up on Tuesday. 

In the past two elections, 73 percent of the state's registered voters cast ballots. In 2000, the first election listed on the state's website with such numbers, 69 percent of registered voters came out to make their voices heard. 

If you're looking for the county that may turn out the greatest percentage of its registered voters, Hunterdon and Somerset County are the favorites. Hunterdon had the greatest percentage in 2008 and tied with Somerset in 2004. Somerset held the title alone in 2000. 

When it comes to a low turnout, Hudson County has recently come in with the smallest numbers. The county's percentage of turnout was the least in 2008 and 2004. In 2000, it was Essex County who came in with a state-low 61 percent of its registered voters.

Here is a look at the last three elections when it comes to voter turnout. 

Presidential Voter Turnout

Year Total Registered Voters Total Ballots Cast Percent Cast County With Greatest Percentage County With Least Percentage 2008 5,378,792 3,910,220 73 Hunterdon (81) Hudson (61) 2004 5,009,140 3,638,153 73 Hunterdon, Somerset (82) Hudson (63) 2000 4,699,026 3,219,650 69 Somerset (81) Essex (61)

Tuesday will write a new chapter in Garden State election history. Will recent history repeat itself? New Jersey voters will decide in a matter of hours.

NJarhead November 06, 2012 at 04:13 PM
I'm not continuing this conversation.
Diogenes November 06, 2012 at 05:27 PM
Fox media consists primarily of professional right-wing propagandists, as Bill O'Reilly admitted during an interview some years ago. There "programs" are endlessly repetitive in criticizing any and all democratic officials, policies, and candidates. They can be amusing if one can put up with their unabashed bias.
Shannon Kelly November 06, 2012 at 05:42 PM
Hostility? Yes hostility! Wow - this country has certainly changed - and not for the better. We still have the best country in the world let's not ruin it. Thank God we have the freedom to voice an opinion without being shot. To resort to calling people idiots (and worse) because they don't agree with you is ridiculous and makes you no better than any other dictator who had to have ultimate control...
ALZ November 06, 2012 at 05:57 PM
"They'll just supply the guns and we will kill one another off." Who are they???
Don Lee November 06, 2012 at 06:33 PM
You really are misinformed. The federal govt should NOT be paying for abortions or birth control with taxpayer monies---women have always had the right to choose and have chosen---DO NOT NEED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT involved in this, either for or against. This country needs a business man to put things on right track so all can have a prosperous life. Obama has another agenda--he was not raised as an American so has no special feelings for this country.
zelda November 06, 2012 at 06:37 PM
zelda Are you kidding? God is showing us the "he" is here by sending two storms. What kind of god do you believe in? and just what is "he" trying to say?
Lisa November 06, 2012 at 06:44 PM
How incredibly rude of you to tell people how to vote.
NJarhead November 06, 2012 at 06:46 PM
You're exactly right Lisa! Tomorrow, you should vote for who ever you want!!!
get it right November 06, 2012 at 06:46 PM
Mike D November 06, 2012 at 06:48 PM
Right on brother, these people are fighting over things that can't be changed. Let's look to the future with some new ideas.
NYCGirlinWestfield November 06, 2012 at 06:56 PM
@Caroline and Zelda: My bible says that it's the devil that comes to steal, kill and destroy. God does not send storms--and please read your bible thoroughly and prayerfully and do not reference Noah's Ark. Man needs to take accountability for it's own actions and how he continually treats, disrespects and disregards mother earth.
NJarhead November 06, 2012 at 07:01 PM
Wait, but didn't God send death to Egypt and turn the Nile to blood?
Bradberry November 06, 2012 at 07:09 PM
If a one liner on the internet sways you to vote for someone? come on Lisa, rude? you are dopey
sunny November 06, 2012 at 07:11 PM
Nut job!!!! There is no God or there be no storms
sunny November 06, 2012 at 07:13 PM
So u want Crazy Mitten who has no clue and his Stepford Wife!!!! LOL
sunny November 06, 2012 at 07:17 PM
You much be rich! Cause that is all Mitt and his Stepford Wife care about!! Cant wait to live in the Regan years again where nothing but the rich matter.
sunny November 06, 2012 at 07:17 PM
You are a biggot!!!
pd November 06, 2012 at 07:20 PM
Don Lee, Your statement is exactly why I fear for the future of this country. This country had a businessman in charge, and he flushed it down the toilet. His Name was George W bush. And Women HAVE NOT always had the right to use birth control and abortions. Abortions were not legalized in this country until 1973. And Married couples were not allowed, by law, to use birth control until 1965. single women were not permitted by law to use birth control until 1972. The ignorance of people like you is what I fear the most.
sunny November 06, 2012 at 07:22 PM
Hate to say it folks but neither man can fix this mess that your buddy Bush and lets face it really Chaney made cuz Bush did not have enough brains in his head to make this mess. He just wanted to play President and so does this joker Mitt!
NJarhead November 06, 2012 at 07:33 PM
I'm not rich. Never was, and I don't recall the Regan years the way you do. What have the rich actually done to you and why is it fair for them the "give just a little bit more (as Obama likes to say)?" Just because they have it? That doesn't sound fair or constitutional to me.
NJarhead November 06, 2012 at 07:34 PM
How do you know there is no God?
pd November 06, 2012 at 07:42 PM
Explain to me why I should pay nearly 40% of my income in taxes while someone much more fortunate should only have to pay <15%. I'm not convinced that Romney has paid any income taxes in the last decade. His failure to release his tax returns for the last decade is extremely suspect to me.
NJarhead November 06, 2012 at 07:57 PM
If you're paying 40% in income taxes then it's because you're probably not too intelligent.
pd November 06, 2012 at 08:00 PM
Way to avoid the actual content of my comment. Maybe if I had his money, I could afford advisers to help me find tax shelters and loopholes.
NJarhead November 06, 2012 at 08:07 PM
You're right. I should have taken your BS claim and comparison (absent of any supportive information) at face value. Shame on me. You pay 40% because God hates you. Better?
Project Bluebeam November 06, 2012 at 08:07 PM
"If I don't have this done in three years, then there's going to be a one-term proposition.” -Barack Hussein Obama, the Today show (2/1/09)
tcawley November 06, 2012 at 08:19 PM
Not sure where you are getting those numbers, pd. The federal income tax is not 15% for wealthy Americans - its about 35%. You may be thinking of capital gains tax. Not the same.
terri November 06, 2012 at 10:06 PM
He would have been able to do more if the gop were more bipartisan
b paterson November 06, 2012 at 10:36 PM
the federal govt would would have been able to do more if obama worked with the GOP, obama was too partisan
fewgrg November 08, 2012 at 08:00 AM
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